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Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-10-31 21:35:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 312034 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that Oscar has become a hurricane-force extratropical low, as the central convection has all but dissipated and frontal-band-type cloud features have become better defined. The scatterometer data show hurricane-force winds about 70 n mi south of the center, and that the overall wind field has expanded considerably since the previous overpass. The cyclone is expected to maintain an intensity of 60-65 kt for the next 48 h, then gradually weaken as the baroclinic energy wanes, with dissipation occurring between 96-120 h over the far northeastern Atlantic. The initial motion is now 030/30 kt. Oscar is now well embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and for the next 3-4 days it should move generally northeastward with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Much of the current forecast, especially the intensity and the size, is based on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. This is the last advisory on Oscar from the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 39.3N 49.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 01/0600Z 42.6N 46.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1800Z 46.8N 41.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0600Z 50.7N 35.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1800Z 54.2N 28.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/1800Z 59.5N 15.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1800Z 67.0N 2.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-31 21:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...HIGH SURF TO SUBSIDE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 31 the center of Oscar was located near 39.3, -49.6 with movement NNE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Public Advisory Number 20
2018-10-31 21:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 312034 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 ...OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...HIGH SURF TO SUBSIDE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.3N 49.6W ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 49.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and a motion toward the northeast with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next two to three days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, Oscar is expected to remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone over the north-central and northeastern Atlantic Ocean into the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Oscar that are affecting Bermuda will subside tonight. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Oscar. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2018-10-31 21:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 31 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 312034 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 2100 UTC WED OCT 31 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 4 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 20
2018-10-31 21:34:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 31 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 312033 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 2100 UTC WED OCT 31 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 49.6W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT.......230NE 240SE 240SW 280NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 420SE 330SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 49.6W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 50.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 42.6N 46.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 46.8N 41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...330NE 360SE 390SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 50.7N 35.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 100SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 420SE 390SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 54.2N 28.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT...360NE 450SE 420SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 59.5N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...360NE 480SE 540SW 450NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 67.0N 2.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 49.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON OSCAR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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