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Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 17
2018-10-23 16:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 231432 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 102.4W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 102.4W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 102.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.5N 103.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 102.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Graphics
2018-10-13 22:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Oct 2018 20:40:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Oct 2018 21:21:53 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 70
2018-10-13 22:37:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 13 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 132036 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Discussion Number 70 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Sat Oct 13 2018 After a total of 70 advisories, long-lived Leslie has become post-tropical just west of the coast of Portugal, finally succumbing to the combination of cool waters, strong vertical wind shear, and interaction with an approaching cold front. The air mass ahead of the cyclone has moistened up in the low levels with Faro, Portugal, reporting a dewpoint of 70F/21C, but the dewpoints across central and northern Portugal ahead of Leslie are only in the low-60F range, which is not indicative of a tropical air mass. Thus, the cyclone is now a powerful post-tropical low pressure system that even has a partial eye noted in the most recent 2000Z Portuguese composite radar imagery. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to degenerate into a broad low pressure area over or just north of Spain by late Sunday. Leslie is moving quickly toward the northeast or 050/30 kt. Post-tropical Cyclone Leslie should continue in a fast northeastward direction for the next 12-18 hours, making landfall near or just south of Porto, Portugal by 14/0000Z. This forecast motion is consistent with the previous advisory and the latest track model guidance. The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain are handling hazards information for their respective countries via local weather products. This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory on this system. Key Messages: 1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to portions of Portugal later tonight as a powerful post-tropical cyclone. Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of northwestern and northern Spain tonight and Sunday. 2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1 to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches) across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash flooding. 3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 40.5N 9.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 14/0600Z 43.0N 4.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL INLAND 24H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 70
2018-10-13 22:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 13 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 132036 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 70 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC SAT OCT 13 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 9.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-13 22:36:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 13 the center of Leslie was located near 40.5, -9.5 with movement NE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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