je.st
news
Tag: posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Graphics
2018-10-12 10:51:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 08:51:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 09:28:28 GMT
Tags: michael
graphics
cyclone
posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Forecast Discussion Number 23
2018-10-12 10:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTNT44 KNHC 120848 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Michael has become a storm-force extratropical low as it moves off of the coast of the United States. The initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on the surface observations, and some additional increase in strength is expected during the next 12-24 h. After that time, the cyclone should gradually weaken, and it is forecast to dissipate over the eastern Atlantic by 96 h. The revised intensity and size forecast are based mainly on the guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. The initial motion is 065/25. The cyclone should move very rapidly toward the east-northeast, followed by a more eastward motion near the end of the cyclone's life. This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Additional information on the remaining impacts over the United States can be found in products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding this morning from eastern New Jersey to southern New England. Elsewhere high water, flooding, and flash flooding may persist today where heavy rain fell very recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states. 2. Gale-force winds will continue for a few more hours over portions of southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and the Delmarva Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 38.0N 73.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 12/1800Z 40.4N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 13/0600Z 43.8N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/1800Z 46.2N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0600Z 47.0N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/0600Z 46.0N 11.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
michael
forecast
Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2018-10-12 10:48:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 120848 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 46(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) SABLE ISLAND 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MONTAUK POINT 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WALLOPS CDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) OCEANA NAS VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
michael
speed
wind
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-12 10:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MICHAEL BECOMES A STORM-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... ...ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 the center of Michael was located near 38.0, -73.1 with movement ENE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: michael
summary
cyclone
posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Forecast Advisory Number 23
2018-10-12 10:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 120847 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 73.1W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 240SE 80SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 73.1W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 75.0W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 40.4N 66.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT... 90NE 360SE 240SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 43.8N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 420SE 300SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 46.2N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 240SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 420SE 360SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 47.0N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 360SE 360SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 46.0N 11.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 73.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
michael
advisory
forecast
Sites : [132] [133] [134] [135] [136] [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] [142] [143] [144] [145] [146] [147] [148] [149] [150] [151] next »