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Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Public Advisory Number 23
2018-10-12 10:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 120847 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...MICHAEL BECOMES A STORM-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... ...ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.0N 73.1W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All coastal tropical cyclone warnings and watches are discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 73.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move away from the United States today and move rapidly across the open Atlantic Ocean tonight through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected today and tonight as the post-tropical cyclone moves across the Atlantic. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 44014 recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph (94 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (115 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the North Carolina coast, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, should diminish today. WIND: Gale winds may continue for a few more hours over portions of southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and the Delmarva Peninsula. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain from New Jersey to Long Island to Cape Cod, and 3 to 5 inches over Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard through this afternoon. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Elsewhere, flooding and flash flooding may continue where Michael produced heavy rain very recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the coastal northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Additional information on the remaining impacts over the United States can be found in products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-25 17:16:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 25 the center of Leslie was located near 31.6, -44.4 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Public Advisory Number 9
2018-09-25 17:16:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018 044 WTNT33 KNHC 251516 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Advisory Number 9...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018 Corrected Discussion and Outlook section ...LESLIE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 44.4W ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 44.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday, followed by a northward turn Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is expected, and Leslie is forecast to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone by Wednesday with winds increasing to hurricane force on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Leslie. Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Graphics
2018-09-25 16:40:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 14:40:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 15:22:02 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-09-25 16:40:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018 676 WTNT43 KNHC 251439 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018 Leslie has become a post-tropical cyclone. Conventional and microwave satellite imagery show that Leslie's surface circulation has become elongated along an intruding baroclinic zone indicated by a recent 1158 UTC ASCAT-A pass. Any deep convection appears to be developing due to dynamic forcing. A rather large stratocumulus cloud shield and associated cooler, stable air is quickly advecting into the area as well. The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this last advisory. Leslie is forecast to strengthen during the next couple of days due to baroclinic processes. The official forecast, based on the GFS and European global models, and the SHIPS statistical intensity guidance, shows an increase of the sustained winds to hurricane force in 2 days, around the same period that the shear drops below 10 kt. The non-tropical low is then forecast to move south of the strong upper-level westerlies and detach from the frontal boundary. According to the global models and the Florida State Cyclone Phase forecast, Leslie should make a transition from a frontal system to an asymmetric shallow warm-core seclusion. Beyond day 3, guidance suggests that Leslie will acquire subtropical characteristics and a more symmetric, deepening warm-core low while meandering in weaker steering currents. The intensity forecast follows this scenario and is based on the aforementioned global and statistical models. Leslie is now moving eastward at a slightly faster forward motion, about 10 kt. A turn to the north is expected in 36 hours followed by a slower westward motion as Leslie slips south of the mid-latitude westerlies. Through the remaining portion of the forecast, Leslie should move at a slower speed generally westward as a ridge builds to the north. NHC forecast is nudged toward the TVCN consensus through 48 hours, then follows more closely to the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF) consensus model. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 31.6N 44.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 26/0000Z 32.1N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/1200Z 33.6N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0000Z 35.6N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/1200Z 36.1N 41.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/1200Z 35.5N 45.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 96H 29/1200Z 34.6N 48.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 120H 30/1200Z 34.4N 49.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM $$ Forecaster Roberts
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