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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-08-18 10:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018 808 WTNT45 KNHC 180834 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018 Ernesto lost all its associated deep convection and the circulation is becoming elongated. On this basis, it is estimated that Ernesto has become a post-tropical cyclone. The system could still produce 35-kt winds in the southeastern quadrant, but it should continue to slowly weaken during the next 24 hours while it approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone later today. The post-tropical cyclone's circulation should dissipate while it moves across Ireland and portions of the United Kingdom by early Sunday. Ernesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt, and this motion should continue until dissipation as indicated by guidance. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the United Kingdom tonight and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 51.9N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 18/1800Z 53.5N 13.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 19/0600Z 55.0N 5.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)
2018-08-18 10:34:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERNESTO NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 18 the center of Ernesto was located near 51.9, -20.0 with movement ENE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Public Advisory Number 13
2018-08-18 10:34:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018 763 WTNT35 KNHC 180833 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018 ...ERNESTO NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...51.9N 20.0W ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM NNE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto was located near latitude 51.9 North, longitude 20.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next 12 to 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to continue, and Ernesto should merge with a frontal zone by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-08-18 10:34:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018 762 WTNT25 KNHC 180833 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 0900 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.9N 20.0W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 130SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 300SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.9N 20.0W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 51.2N 22.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 53.5N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 130SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 55.0N 5.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.9N 20.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-08-18 10:34:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018 780 FONT15 KNHC 180833 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 0900 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 51.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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