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Post-Tropical Cyclone KEVIN Forecast Discussion Number 20
2015-09-05 16:46:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051446 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 900 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015 Strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear of around 30 kt removed deep convection from Kevin's low-level circulation, beginning around 0000 UTC. The deep convection, along with Kevin's mid-level circulation, has since dissipated. With no active convection for some time, Kevin is being declared a post-tropical remnant low. The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt in accordance with the latest satellite classifications and based on the assumption that some spin down of the circulation has occurred since the last advisory. Global models depict Kevin degenerating into a trough of low pressure in about 12 hours, and the official forecast indicates dissipation in about a day. The cyclone was moving north-northeastward overnight while slowing down, but has since turned northward and recently north- northwestward. The initial motion estimate is now 340/06. A turn toward the northwest is expected before the cyclone dissipates tomorrow in agreement with the track model guidance. For additional information on this remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 23.6N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone KEVIN (EP4/EP142015)
2015-09-05 16:44:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 the center of KEVIN was located near 23.6, -114.6 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone KEVIN Public Advisory Number 20
2015-09-05 16:44:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 051444 TCPEP4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 900 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015 ...KEVIN BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.6N 114.6W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 114.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Kevin. For additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Post-Tropical Cyclone KEVIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2015-09-05 16:44:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 051444 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone KEVIN Forecast Advisory Number 20
2015-09-05 16:44:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 051443 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 114.6W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 114.6W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 114.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON KEVIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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