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Post-Tropical Cyclone LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 20
2015-09-10 22:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 102032 TCDEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 200 PM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 Linda is now a swirl of low clouds that has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours. Based on the lack of convection, Linda is now a post-tropical cyclone and this will be the last NHC advisory. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB. The circulation of Linda should gradually spin down over the next 2 to 3 days until the cyclone dissipates. The initial motion estimate remains 320/06. The remnant low should gradually turn toward the west-northwest and then toward the west over the next 2 days as the low becomes steered by the low-level flow. A turn to the south of due west is shown at 72 hours. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the north of the previous one based on the latest trends in the track guidance. Large swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells could continue for another day or so. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is spreading northward into portions of the southwestern U.S., which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 26.4N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 11/0600Z 26.9N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1800Z 27.4N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 27.7N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 27.8N 122.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1800Z 27.2N 123.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone LINDA (EP5/EP152015)
2015-09-10 22:32:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LINDA NOW A POST-TROPICAL LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 10 the center of LINDA was located near 26.4, -119.0 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone LINDA Public Advisory Number 20
2015-09-10 22:32:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 102032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LINDA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 200 PM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 ...LINDA NOW A POST-TROPICAL LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 119.0W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Linda was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 119.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are forecast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells are likely to continue for another day or two and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Post-Tropical Cyclone LINDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2015-09-10 22:32:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 102032 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Post-Tropical Cyclone KEVIN Graphics
2015-09-05 17:26:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2015 14:44:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2015 15:10:14 GMT
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