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Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 31
2015-06-04 22:40:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUN 04 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042040 TCDEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 PM PDT THU JUN 04 2015 Although the low-level center of Andres remains intact, organized deep convection has been absent from the center for more than 12 hours. In addition, what minimal convection remains is displaced a considerable distance to the northeast of the center. On this basis, Andres is being designated as a remnant low, and advisories are being terminated at this time. Gradual weakening of the vortex is expected to continue during the next couple of days due to unfavorable environmental conditions, and global models show Andres degenerating into an open trough by Saturday. The NHC forecast calls for dissipation between 48 and 72 hours. The initial motion estimate is 095/03. Now a shallow system, the remnants of Andres are expected to be primarily steered by the combination of low-level ridging to the northwest, along with a tug by the large circulation of Hurricane Blanca to the east. This should induce a slow east-southeastward to southeastward motion until complete dissipation. For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 20.1N 124.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1800Z 19.7N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z 19.1N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 18.7N 122.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2015-06-04 22:40:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 04 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 042039 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 2100 UTC THU JUN 04 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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andres
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-06-04 22:40:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Jun 4 the center of ANDRES was located near 20.1, -124.2 with movement E at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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ep1ep012015
Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 31
2015-06-04 22:38:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 04 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 042038 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 2100 UTC THU JUN 04 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 124.2W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 124.2W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 124.4W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.7N 123.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.1N 123.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.7N 122.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 124.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ANDRES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Graphics
2014-10-23 05:08:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Oct 2014 02:37:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Oct 2014 03:04:43 GMT
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posttropical
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