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Post-Tropical Cyclone NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 24
2014-09-08 10:51:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 08 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080851 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 AM PDT MON SEP 08 2014 There has been no organized deep convection within Norbert's circulation for more than 12 hours now, so the system is being declared a post-tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is lowered to 35 kt in basic agreement with a 0524 UTC ASCAT-B overpass that indicated wind vectors of around 32 kt in the southwestern quadrant. Since Norbert is expected to move over even cooler waters, it is presumed that a faster rate of decay should occur during the next couple of days, with dissipation forecast in 2-3 days. The official wind speed forecast shows slightly faster weakening than the previous one, with the expectation that the remnant low of Norbert will be very weak when it approaches the north-central Baja California peninsula. Norbert has been moving northwestward or 320/5 kt. The post- tropical cyclone should turn toward the north and northeast during the next couple of days ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough advancing eastward offshore of the California coast. In 2-3 days, the shallow remnant circulation should be pushed east-northeastward or eastward by the low-level flow toward the coast of the northern Baja California peninsula prior to dissipation. The official track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one and in best agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCE. Although Norbert is weakening, tropical moisture should continue to spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these area during the next day or two. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Norbert. For future information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 27.4N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/1800Z 27.7N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 09/0600Z 28.5N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/1800Z 29.0N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0600Z 29.3N 116.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-08 10:50:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 8 the center of NORBERT was located near 27.4, -118.3 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone NORBERT Public Advisory Number 24
2014-09-08 10:50:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 08 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 080850 TCPEP4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 AM PDT MON SEP 08 2014 ...NORBERT BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 118.3W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ...9 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NORBERT SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TODAY AND DISSIPATE IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...RIP CURRENTS...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THESE SWELLS SHOULD SUBSIDE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON NORBERT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2014-09-08 10:44:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 08 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 080844 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0900 UTC MON SEP 08 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-29 17:07:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 14:51:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 15:03:45 GMT
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