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Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2014-10-19 22:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 192038 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 2100 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 51.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone SIMON Graphics
2014-10-08 05:08:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Oct 2014 02:43:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Oct 2014 03:04:44 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 26
2014-10-08 04:42:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080242 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 Simon has been devoid of organized deep convection for more than 12 hours. Strong shear and an unfavorable thermodynamic environment should prevent any significant redevelopment of convection, and the system is being declared a post-tropical remnant low at this time. Based on earlier ASCAT data, the initial wind speed remains 30 kt for this advisory. The low should weaken during the next day or so, and the global models suggest that the cyclone will become an open trough within 24 to 48 hours as it interacts with land. The low has turned northeastward this evening with an initial motion estimate of 040/6 kt. A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected until dissipation occurs. This will take the cyclone, or its remnant, across north-central Baja California and into Mainland Mexico. Even if Simon or its remnant surface circulation does not make it across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during the next couple of days. Please refer to statements from your local weather office for information on hazards specific to your area. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Simon. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 28.1N 115.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 08/1200Z 28.9N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 09/0000Z 30.5N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-08 04:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SIMON BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Oct 7 the center of SIMON was located near 28.1, -115.8 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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ep4ep192014
Post-Tropical Cyclone SIMON Public Advisory Number 26
2014-10-08 04:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 080241 TCPEP4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 ...SIMON BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 115.8W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF AROUND 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SIMON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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