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Post-Tropical Cyclone SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2014-10-08 04:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 080241 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P PENASCO 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Post-Tropical Cyclone SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 26
2014-10-08 04:40:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 080240 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 115.8W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 115.8W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.9N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 115.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SIMON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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simon
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Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-30 23:08:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Sep 2014 20:59:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Sep 2014 21:04:44 GMT
Tags: graphics
rachel
cyclone
posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 26
2014-09-30 22:57:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 302057 TCDEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 Rachel artfully draws to a close. Deep convection associated with Rachel dissipated about 15 hours ago and it is unlikely to redevelop due to unfavorable thermodynamic factors and strong shear. Based on these conditions, the cyclone is being declared a post-tropical remnant low at this time. Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased further and the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. Global model guidance shows the remnant low degenerating into an open trough by Friday. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous forecast and the GFS model. During the last couple of hours, the now-shallow vortex associated with Rachel has taken on a southward drift. A slow southwestward motion is expected during the next two days as it continues to move around the eastern periphery of a low-level ridge. The track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, nearly between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions. This is the last advisory on Rachel by the National Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 22.9N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 01/0600Z 22.8N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1800Z 22.6N 118.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 22.4N 119.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z 22.2N 119.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Ramos
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rachel
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-30 22:57:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 30 the center of RACHEL was located near 22.9, -117.5 with movement S at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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rachel
cyclone
ep3ep182014
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