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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-09-09 10:45:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 747 WTNT43 KNHC 090845 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 Satellite imagery indicates that Helene continues to become better organized with an increase in banding overnight. A couple of recent microwave images show that the inner core continues to organize with a low-level ring evident and indication that a banding-type eye is forming. Dvorak satellite T-numbers have increased and support an initial intensity of 55 kt. Helene is forecast to remain over SSTs of 27-28C during the next couple of days. The upper-level wind pattern is also expected to be quite favorable, and these conditions should support steady intensification. Slightly cooler waters and increasing southwesterly shear from an upper-level trough to the northwest of Helene are likely to put an end to the intensification process by day 3. After that time, Helene is forecast to move closer to the aforementioned trough with southwesterly shear and drier mid-level air likely to result in weakening by day 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is near the IVCN intensity consensus model, but it is a little more conservative than the FSSE and HCCA models. The tropical storm is moving westward or 270 degrees at 12 kt. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the storm should steer Helene westward to west-northwestward during the next couple of days. By mid-week, Helene is expected to approach a weakness in the ridge between 40-50W longitude and the cyclone is predicted to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward by the end of the period. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, but there is some spread later in the period as to exactly what longitude the northwesterly turn takes place. The NHC forecast is between the various dynamical model solutions and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 13.2N 24.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 13.4N 26.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 14.0N 28.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 14.7N 31.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 15.4N 34.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 17.4N 38.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 20.5N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 25.0N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-09 10:45:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OUTER BANDS OF HELENE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9 the center of Helene was located near 13.2, -24.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 8
2018-09-09 10:45:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 327 WTNT33 KNHC 090845 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 ...OUTER BANDS OF HELENE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 24.0W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 24.0 West. Helene is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur by Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area today. Hurricane conditions are also possible in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands today. RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-09-09 10:45:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 347 FONT13 KNHC 090845 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PRAIA CVI 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SANTA MARIA CV 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Advisory Number 8
2018-09-09 10:44:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 103 WTNT23 KNHC 090844 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 24.0W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 180SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 24.0W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 23.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.4N 26.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.0N 28.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.7N 31.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.4N 34.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.4N 38.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 20.5N 41.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 25.0N 42.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 24.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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