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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1A
2013-09-13 19:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 131733 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...VERY HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 101.8W ABOUT 145 MI...225 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...AND COULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINEOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Graphics
2013-09-13 17:23:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2013 15:05:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2013 15:09:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-09-13 17:03:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 131503 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ENOUGH OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM WATERS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND ITS INITIAL STRUCTURE WHICH IS NOT TOTALLY FREE OF THE ITCZ. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/3. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SOON DUE TO A DEEPENING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS JUST A BIT WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS WARNING MIGHT HAVE TO BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 15.7N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 16.0N 101.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 16.8N 101.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.7N 101.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.7N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-13 17:01:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...VERY HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 13 the center of THIRTEEN-E was located near 15.7, -101.3 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2013-09-13 17:01:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 131501 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...VERY HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 101.3W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...AND COULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINEOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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