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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-08-18 22:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 182036 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 The tropical depression is slowly becoming more organized. Moderate upper-level northeasterly winds are inhibiting outflow in the northeast quadrant of the cyclone, but banding convection is present in all quadrants. A pair of ASCAT passes around 1700 and 1800 UTC confirmed that the depression has a well-defined center and showed maximum winds of just below 30 kt. The initial intensity is therefore held at 30 kt. The ASCAT data also indicated that the center of circulation is a little to the south of the previous estimated position, perhaps in part due to a reorganization of the center closer to the main mass of convection. Due to the relocation of the estimated center to the south, the official forecast has been shifted to the south and west throughout the forecast period. Otherwise, the reasoning behind the forecast has not changed, and the depression should continue to be steered generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 3 days by a mid-level ridge. A weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop around day 4 that should cause the cyclone to turn toward the northwest and slow down. The only change in the track guidance is a slight increase in forward speed through 36 h, and confidence is fairly high in the track forecast due to a tight clustering of the global models. No change has been made to the intensity forecast, which remains very close to the multi-model consensus. The light northeasterly shear currently affecting the cyclone is forecast to decrease over the next 12 to 24 h. Once that happens, the cyclone will be embedded within an environment consisting of low shear, warm SSTs, and sufficient moisture to support strengthening. After about 72 h, cooler waters and a more stable environment should cause steady weakening. By day 5, SSTs are expected to be be below 24 C, and the cyclone will likely be close to becoming a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 14.8N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.1N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 15.6N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 16.4N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 17.2N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 18.9N 131.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 21.0N 133.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 23.9N 133.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-08-18 22:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 182036 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 37 17(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) 15N 120W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 38(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) 2(21) X(21) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 43(51) 4(55) 1(56) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 4(40) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen-E (EP3/EP132017)
2017-08-18 22:36:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 the center of Thirteen-E was located near 14.8, -117.9 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2017-08-18 22:36:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 182036 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 117.9W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 117.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight. Additional strengthening is expected after that, and it could become a hurricane over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-08-18 22:35:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 182035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.9W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.9W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 117.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.1N 119.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.6N 122.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.4N 125.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.2N 128.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.9N 131.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 133.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.9N 133.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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