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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-08-25 04:32:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250231 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 900 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 The cloud pattern of the depression has become a little better organized during the past several hours with the center of circulation located between two curved bands to its north and south. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, in agreement with a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The tropical cyclone is expected to strengthen during the next 3 to 4 days while it remains over warm water, in a moist environment, and in moderate wind shear conditions. Some weakening could occur by the end of the forecast period when the system moves over cooler waters and into a drier air mass. The intensity guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the NHC forecast is close to the intensity model consensus. The depression has been moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt away from the coast of Mexico. A decrease in forward speed is expected on Thursday when the cyclone moves closer to a break in the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to rebuild to the north of the cyclone this weekend, and that should cause the system to move westward at a faster pace. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the south of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.7N 110.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 16.3N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.8N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 17.2N 115.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 17.6N 116.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 17.8N 119.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 17.9N 124.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 18.1N 129.4W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E (EP3/EP132016)
2016-08-25 04:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 the center of THIRTEEN-E was located near 15.7, -110.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 2
2016-08-25 04:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 250231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 900 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 110.9W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 110.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm overnight or on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-08-25 04:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 250231 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 0300 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X 10(10) 34(44) 8(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 5( 5) 11(16) 4(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 6(24) 1(25) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 9(39) X(39) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 7(24) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 10(36) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2016-08-25 04:31:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 250230 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 0300 UTC THU AUG 25 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.9W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.9W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.3N 112.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.8N 113.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.2N 115.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.6N 116.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.8N 119.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 17.9N 124.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 18.1N 129.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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