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Tropical Storm DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2013-07-01 16:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 01 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 011434 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 1500 UTC MON JUL 01 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 2 4 9 23 TROP DEPRESSION 2 2 7 13 24 35 48 TROPICAL STORM 85 50 61 62 61 52 28 HURRICANE 13 48 31 23 11 5 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 12 41 25 19 10 5 1 HUR CAT 2 1 5 4 3 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 65KT 60KT 55KT 50KT 45KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P VALLARTA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 12(29) 7(36) 1(37) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-01 16:34:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA STRENGTHENING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 the center of DALILA was located near 17.8, -105.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm DALILA Public Advisory Number 7
2013-07-01 16:34:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 011434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2013 ...DALILA STRENGTHENING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 105.8W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND DALILA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY TONIGHT. RAINFALL...DALILA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 5 INCHES...ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm DALILA Graphics
2013-07-01 13:33:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Jul 2013 11:33:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Jul 2013 09:04:46 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-01 13:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 5:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 the center of DALILA was located near 17.5, -105.4 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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