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Tropical Storm DALILA Graphics
2013-07-01 05:07:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Jul 2013 02:34:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Jul 2013 03:03:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-07-01 04:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010232 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF DALILA HAS IMPROVED. IN FACT...37 GHZ AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM A 30/1857Z TRMM OVERPASS REVEALED THAT A 70 PERCENT CLOSED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYEWALL HAD DEVELOPED. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF 45 KT...30 KT...AND 47 KT FROM TAFB...SAB... AND UW-CIMSS ADT...RESPECTIVELY. MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT DALILA HAS BEEN WOBBLING ABOUT A MEAN MOTION OF 315/09 KT. THE MASSIVE HEAT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...AND ALSO WESTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS STAGNANT STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP DALILA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AND TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF AND HWRF MODELS TAKING DALILA SOUTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STABLE THE PAST FEW CYCLES...KEEP DALILA MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A ROBUST TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE...AND THAT TRACK SCENARIO WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT AT ONLY 3 KT...THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE HAS KEPT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...RECENT VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MORE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE...WHICH COULD BE A SIGNAL THAT AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE STRONGER SHEAR KICKS IN. DALILA IS A COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THAT IT IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID CHANGES CHANGES IN INTENSITY...BOTH UP AND DOWN. SO FOR NOW...A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION UNTIL A SOLID INTENSIFICATION SIGNAL HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND NOW SHOWS DALILA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 16.8N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 17.5N 105.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 18.3N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 18.7N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 18.9N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 19.0N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 19.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2013-07-01 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 01 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 010231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0300 UTC MON JUL 01 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 2 4 9 18 TROP DEPRESSION 6 7 7 6 18 28 45 TROPICAL STORM 91 75 60 51 63 57 36 HURRICANE 3 18 31 41 15 7 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 16 25 31 13 6 1 HUR CAT 2 X 2 4 8 2 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 55KT 50KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) 1(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 6(16) 3(19) X(19) 1(20) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 11(12) 6(18) 4(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 12(22) 7(29) 1(30) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 5(21) 1(22) X(22) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-01 04:31:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF DALILA BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 the center of DALILA was located near 16.8, -104.4 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm DALILA Public Advisory Number 5
2013-07-01 04:31:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 010231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013 ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF DALILA BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 104.4W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST. DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...BUT DALILA IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND DALILA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE MONDAY. RAINFALL...DALILA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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