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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2014-09-12 10:42:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 120842 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2014-09-12 10:41:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 120841 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 120.2W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 120.2W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 120.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.7N 119.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.4N 118.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.9N 116.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.3N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 120.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Graphics
2014-09-12 05:19:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2014 02:55:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2014 03:08:15 GMT
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-09-12 04:50:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120250 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 Earlier microwave imagery indicated that the low-level center of the depression was located near the northern edge of the deep convection. The convection itself is not all that organized, and the cloud tops have recently been warming. The system remains a 30-kt depression based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The vertical shear affecting the cyclone is expected to increase out of the east during the next 12-24 hours, which should prevent strengthening during the next couple of days. The depression is likely to become absorbed by the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Odile, and the NHC forecast continues to show dissipation by day 3. The initial motion is northward, or 360/5 kt. Low clouds to the east of the depression are already being pulled eastward into Odile's circulation, and the depression is also likely to be pulled northeastward and eastward during the next 24 hours. The available track models are showing a faster eastward motion on this cycle, and the updated NHC forecast is adjusted eastward near the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 16.6N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 16.8N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 16.7N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 16.1N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 15.3N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (EP1/EP162014)
2014-09-12 04:50:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TURNS NORTHWARD... ...NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 11 the center of SIXTEEN-E was located near 16.6, -120.0 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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