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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 11

2014-09-14 04:33:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140233 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 0300 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.1W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.1W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 116.5W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.2N 114.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.2N 112.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 116.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Graphics

2014-09-13 23:21:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Sep 2014 20:42:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Sep 2014 21:08:29 GMT

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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 10

2014-09-13 22:42:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 132042 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 Ragged convection has persisted near the center of the depression since the previous advisory, and a 1748 UTC ASCAT-B overpass showed still showed a well-defined low-level circulation and three 28-kt surface wind vectors in the southwestern quadrant. Therefore, an initial intensity of 30 kt is being maintained for this advisory, which is supported by a T2.0/30 kt classification from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is toward the southeast or 120/06 kt. There is no change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The depression is expected to gradually turn toward the east over the next 12-24 hours as the small cyclone comes under the influence of increasing westerly flow on the south side of Hurricane Odile, and be absorbed into the outer circulation of Odile by 72 hours. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and is close to the consensus model TCVE. Northeasterly to easterly vertical wind shear is expected to steadily increase throughout the forecast period owing to the strong outflow from Hurricane Odile. As a result, the depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low during the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the ICON consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.5N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.4N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 15.7N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/0600Z 17.0N 111.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE ODILE $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Summary for Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (EP1/EP162014)

2014-09-13 22:41:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 13 the center of SIXTEEN-E was located near 15.5, -116.8 with movement ESE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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