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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-09-14 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140235 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 Satellite imagery suggests that the depression is actually somewhat better organized than it was 24 hours ago. Last-light visible images showed a well-defined circulation within an elongated broader-scale cyclonic envelope, obscured by a thick veil of cirrus clouds. A band consisting of intermittent, cold-topped convection also was noted on the south side of circulation. Since there have been no fundamental changes to the cloud pattern since the last advisory, the initial intensity estimate is held at 30 kt. Opposing lower- and upper-level flow is creating a hostile environment of easterly shear over the depression, with global models showing the shear increasing while the depression nears Hurricane Odile. The model guidance shows that the shear will become so extreme that the depression will degenerate into an open trough in about 24 hours, and the NHC forecast follows suit. The depression is moving faster toward the east-southeast or 120/08. The small cyclone is expected to accelerate eastward and east-northeastward during the next 24 hours while it is drawn into the circulation of Hurricane Odile. The system should turn northeastward after that time before losing its identity altogether. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.1N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 15.2N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 16.2N 112.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Graphics
2014-09-14 04:34:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2014 02:34:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2014 02:33:49 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (EP1/EP162014)
2014-09-14 04:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE SUNDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 13 the center of SIXTEEN-E was located near 15.1, -116.1 with movement ESE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 11
2014-09-14 04:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 140233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 116.1W ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/H. AN EASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHWESTWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2014-09-14 04:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 140233 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 0300 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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