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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
2017-08-30 22:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Aug 2017 20:41:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Aug 2017 21:24:12 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 42
2017-08-30 22:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 302035 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 Harvey is gradually weakening as the center moves farther inland, with the winds near the center diminishing and the central pressure rising to near 998 mb. However, scatterometer data and surface observations indicate a band of 30-35 kt winds over the Gulf of Mexico well to the southeast of the center, and this is the basis for keeping Harvey a tropical storm. The cyclone should weaken to a depression in less than 12 hours, and continued slow weakening is anticipated until the cyclone dissipates completely between 72-96 h. It should be noted that the forecast weakening will not eliminate the risk of continued heavy rainfall and flooding along Harvey's path, although the system's faster motion will keep subsequent rainfall totals well below what occurred over southeastern Texas. Harvey is wobbling back and forth around an overall motion of 020/7. The cyclone is located on the northwestern side of a low- to mid-tropospheric level ridge over the western Atlantic and eastern Gulf of Mexico, which should steer it north-northeastward and then northeastward across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys during the next 72-96 h until the system dissipates. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. While the threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life- threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur, eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 2. The flood threat has spread farther north and east, and additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western Kentucky through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 30.8N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 31/0600Z 31.8N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/1800Z 33.5N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/0600Z 35.1N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/1800Z 36.4N 87.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 02/1800Z 38.6N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42
2017-08-30 22:34:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 302034 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSON MS 34 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MORGAN CITY LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 23 6(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) LAFAYETTE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 34 53 X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) FORT POLK LA 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) LAKE CHARLES 34 45 X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) CAMERON LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JASPER TX 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KOUNTZE TX 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-30 22:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 the center of Harvey was located near 30.8, -93.1 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 42
2017-08-30 22:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 302033 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 ...HARVEY STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 93.1W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch and Warning are discontinued for the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sabine Pass Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings and other products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 93.1 West. Harvey is moving erratically toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northeast is expected Thursday or Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey should move through southwestern and central Louisiana tonight, then move through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours as Harvey moves farther inland, and the cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly over water to the southeast of the center. An automated station near Lacassine, Louisiana recently reported a wind gust of 44 mph (71 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 12 inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/ Galveston area. However catastrophic and life threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur, eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river and small stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across these areas. A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... San Luis Pass to Grand Isle...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist through this evening. Gusts to tropical-storm-force are possible over other portions of southern Louisiana through this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coast of Louisiana, but are expected to subside late tonight and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, western Alabama, and southeast Arkansas. Additional tornadoes are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening across northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia into parts of Tennessee. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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