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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2021-09-25 22:39:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 252039 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)

2021-09-25 22:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SAM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 25 the center of Sam was located near 13.3, -48.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 13

2021-09-25 22:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 252038 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 ...SAM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 48.5W ABOUT 1025 MI...1655 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 48.5 West. Sam is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower motion to the west-northwest is expected over the weekend, followed by a turn to the northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected through tonight. Some fluctuations in the hurricane's intensity are then possible early next week. Sam remains a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sam are forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles early next week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 13

2021-09-25 22:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 252038 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 48.5W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 48.5W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 48.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.7N 49.4W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.3N 50.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.9N 51.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.7N 52.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.6N 53.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.4N 55.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 19.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 48.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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