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Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)

2021-09-27 10:45:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SAM EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO INVESTIGATE SAM LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 27 the center of Sam was located near 15.2, -51.4 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 19

2021-09-27 10:45:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 270845 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 ...SAM EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO INVESTIGATE SAM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 51.4W ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 51.4 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next several days, with an increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Thereafter, some slow weakening is forecast through midweek, although Sam should remain a major hurricane. Sam is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sam will reach the Lesser Antilles today and impact these islands for the next several days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

2021-09-27 10:45:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 270845 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 19

2021-09-27 10:44:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270844 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 51.4W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 51.4W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 51.1W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.9N 52.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.8N 53.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.7N 54.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.6N 55.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.6N 57.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.0N 58.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.9N 61.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 30.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 51.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

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