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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 16
2021-09-26 16:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 261442 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 ...SAM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 50.2W ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 50.2 West. Sam is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph. This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. Then, a northwestward motion is forecast to continue through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next day or so. Thereafter, some slow weakening is forecast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sam are forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles early this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-09-26 16:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 261441 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 26 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 50.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 50.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.4N 51.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.2N 52.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.8N 54.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.7N 55.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.6N 57.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 95SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.4N 60.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 25.6N 63.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 50.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH
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Hurricane Sam Graphics
2021-09-26 10:49:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 26 Sep 2021 08:49:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 26 Sep 2021 08:49:04 GMT
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-09-26 10:47:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 260847 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 Sam remains a small but intense hurricane this morning, with a well-defined 10 n mi-wide eye. A 0500 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass reveals Sam has a compact inner core of deep convection surrounding its eye, with curved convective bands primarily extending around the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. Infrared cloud top temperatures briefly warmed overnight in portions of Sam's central dense overcast, perhaps due to some intrusions of drier mid-level air. The 06z objective and subjective satellite estimates ranged from 113-127 kt, but Sam's satellite presentation has improved in recent infrared imagery as cloud top temperatures are cooling around the eye. Thus, the initial intensity is held at 125 kt for this advisory. NOAA aircraft are scheduled to investigate Sam later this afternoon, which should provide helpful information about the structure and intensity of the hurricane. Sam is moving toward the west-northwest, or 295/7 kt. A deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Sam should generally steer the hurricane west-northwestward to northwestward for the next several days. By midweek, an amplifying upper-level trough will move off the east coast of the U.S. and dig southward over the western Atlantic, which will erode the western extent of the steering ridge. The deep-layer southerly flow ahead of the trough should cause Sam to begin recurving, with a somewhat faster north-northwestward motion forecast by day 5. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and generally lies between the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and TVCA aids. At days 4-5, there is more spread in the track guidance, with the ECMWF on the far left side of the guidance envelope and the GFS on the far right. The NHC forecast track has been nudged just slightly to the left at 96 and 120 h, but it still lies to the right of HCCA. The hurricane will likely experience some fluctuations in intensity during the next day or two. On the one hand, Sam remains over warm sea-surface temperatures of around 28.5 deg C, with vertical wind shear less than 10 kt as diagnosed from the SHIPS guidance. However, GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows some drier mid-level air in the surrounding environment that may periodically entrain into the inner core of Sam. Additionally, the onset of an eyewall replacement cycle remains a distinct possibility at this stage of Sam's life cycle, although the latest microwave data does not suggest one is imminent. The official NHC intensity forecast lies on the high end of the guidance for the first 36-48 h of the forecast period. Thereafter, the NHC forecast trends closer to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Some gradual weakening is forecast later in the period as the southwesterly vertical wind shear begins to increase, but Sam is still forecast to remain a major hurricane through the 5-day period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 13.8N 49.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 14.3N 50.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 15.0N 51.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 15.8N 52.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 16.6N 53.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 17.5N 55.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 18.4N 56.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 20.8N 59.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 24.5N 62.0W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-09-26 10:47:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SAM REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 26 the center of Sam was located near 13.8, -49.7 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
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