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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 22
2021-09-28 04:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 28 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280232 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC TUE SEP 28 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 53.2W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 53.2W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 52.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.4N 55.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.3N 56.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.6N 58.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.2N 59.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.3N 61.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.6N 61.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 37.5N 56.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 53.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Sam Graphics
2021-09-27 22:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 27 Sep 2021 20:51:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 27 Sep 2021 21:22:54 GMT
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-09-27 22:51:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 272051 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 Sam's weakening trend ended earlier today, with the intensity likely bottoming out between the issuance of the previous advisory and now. Over the past few hours, microwave data and satellite imagery indicate that the inner core and eyewall of the hurricane are making a comeback. There is now a clear eye in visible imagery, convective cloud tops colder than -65 degrees C wrap completely around the center, and the convective mass is becoming more circular once again. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Sam indicates the central pressure has dropped to 957 mb, with peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 106 kt, SFMR values of 100 kt, and dropsonde surface winds of 102 kt. Given possible minor undersampling and the recent dropping of the hurricane's pressure, the initial advisory intensity is set at 105 kt. Sam continues to move northwest, or 315/8 kt. The hurricane is expected to continue this northwestward motion around a subtropical ridge over the next few days. By late Thursday or early Friday a turn toward the north is anticipated as Sam rounds the western periphery of the ridge. The cyclone should begin to gradually accelerate during that time in the increasing flow ahead of a mid- to upper-level trough emerging off the U.S. east coast later this week. Model guidance remains in very good agreement on this scenario and the latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one, and lies near tightly clustered consensus track guidance. The southwesterly winds that brought in some dry air and disrupted Sam's impressive satellite appearance last night appear to have abated. As long as environmental winds surrounding the hurricane remain light, then the dry air surrounding the cyclone should not have as much of an impact on the hurricane's strength over the next few days. Based on the improving inner-core structure appearance of Sam, re-strengthening is forecast over the next 12 h. Thereafter, mainly minor fluctuations in intensity are indicated through 72 h. Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing sea-surface temperatures should cause Sam to weaken. The latest NHC intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward through 36 h and is on the high end of the guidance. Thereafter, no changes were made, and that portion of the forecast is close to the various multimodel consensus solutions. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Sam are affecting the Leeward Islands and will spread to portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Thursday or Friday. Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials through the upcoming weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 16.3N 52.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 17.0N 53.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 17.8N 54.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 18.8N 55.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 19.8N 57.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 21.2N 59.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 22.9N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 27.8N 62.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 34.7N 59.6W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2021-09-27 22:50:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 272050 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-09-27 22:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SAM BEGINNING TO REGROUP AFTER WEAKENING... ...SOME REINTENSIFICATION EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 27 the center of Sam was located near 16.3, -52.7 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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