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Hurricane Sam Graphics
2021-10-01 10:49:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Oct 2021 08:49:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Oct 2021 09:22:53 GMT
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 35
2021-10-01 10:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 010846 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Sam a few hours ago and found that the already-intense hurricane had strengthened a bit since yesterday afternoon's reconnaissance flight. The plane measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 147 kt in the northeastern eyewall, and using a typical 90-percent reduction from that altitude, the intensity is estimated to be 130 kt. Dropsondes released in the eye also indicated that the central pressure had fallen to 934 mb. This drop in pressure is likely due to a combination of the strengthening and an expansion of the tropical-storm- and hurricane-force wind fields, which was confirmed by the aircraft and scatterometer data from last evening. Sam is moving a little faster toward the north-northwest (345/15 kt) as it curves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge located over the eastern and central subtropical Atlantic. The hurricane is expected to turn northward later today and then northeastward by Saturday night--passing well to the east of Bermuda--when it begins to move between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level low located over the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. Interaction and a possible merger with the aforementioned low during extratropical transition is likely to cause a sudden north-northeastward acceleration to the southeast of Newfoundland on day 4, followed by a slower motion toward the east-northeast on day 5. The track models are very tightly clustered for much of the 5-day forecast period, yielding high confidence in the NHC track forecast. The new NHC forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous forecast, and closely follows the GFEX and TVCA consensus aids. Although fluctuations in intensity will still be possible, a general weakening trend is anticipated in the coming days as Sam moves over a gradually cooler ocean, reaching sub-26C waters by day 3. However, the weakening is not expected to be rapid due to continued upper-level divergence and only light-to-moderate deep-layer shear, and Sam could remain a major hurricane at least through Saturday night. Global models now indicate that Sam should complete extratropical transition by day 4, and baroclinic forcing is likely to keep the system as a potent hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone through the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is essentially an update of the previous forecast, lying close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and then spread to the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 26.6N 61.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 28.8N 62.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 31.7N 61.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 34.2N 59.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 36.0N 57.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 37.7N 55.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 40.1N 51.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 47.7N 44.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/0600Z 50.1N 38.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2021-10-01 10:46:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 010846 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 3(48) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 2 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-10-01 10:45:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SAM'S CORE TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND BY TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 1 the center of Sam was located near 26.6, -61.7 with movement NNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 934 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 35
2021-10-01 10:45:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 656 WTNT33 KNHC 010845 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...SAM'S CORE TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND BY TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 61.7W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 61.7 West. Sam is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northeast, at a similar forward speed, is expected later today and tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible today, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at least Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 934 mb (27.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas later today, and then spread to the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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