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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 25
2018-09-18 22:29:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 712 WTNT25 KNHC 182028 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 27.8W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 205 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 27.8W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 27.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.2N 28.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.6N 29.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.1N 30.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 27.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CAMPBELL/BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2018-09-18 22:29:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 699 FONT15 KNHC 182028 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CAMPBELL/BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Joyce Graphics
2018-09-18 16:51:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Sep 2018 14:51:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Sep 2018 15:27:54 GMT
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 24
2018-09-18 16:31:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 960 WTNT45 KNHC 181431 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 Earlier in the morning, the low-level center of Joyce became decoupled from a small area of deeper convection. However, another convective burst has recently developed after 12Z closer to the low-level center. The initial intensity of Joyce was held at 30 kt based on a recent ASCAT pass, which showed an area of 25-30 kt winds on the north side of the circulation. The number of wind retrievals close to 30 kt was rather limited, so Joyce's winds should decrease below 30 kt when it eventually loses deep convection. The depression is in an environment with strong westerly vertical wind shear (30-40 kt) and marginal sea surface temperatures (around 25C), and thus the primary forecast question is when Joyce will succumb to the relatively hostile environment, lose deep convection and become a remnant low. The GFS and ECMWF models both show some deep convection lingering into tomorrow before warming upper-level temperatures and increasingly dry air aloft kill off any remaining convection. Therefore, the 12-hour forecast point maintains tropical depression status, and the 24-hour forecast point indicates a post-tropical system. The initial motion of Joyce is now more southerly (185 degrees at 7 kt), and it will begin to turn increasingly to the southwest and west as the central Atlantic ridge builds to the north. The new forecast track is essentially an update of the previous one, which was close to the TVCA and HCCA consensus models. Minor adjustments were made in the first 24 hours to account for a slightly faster observed motion to the south in the past 6-12 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 31.6N 27.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 30.6N 27.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 29.9N 28.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 29.4N 29.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z 29.0N 31.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Lamers/Blake
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Tropical Depression Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2018-09-18 16:31:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 230 FONT15 KNHC 181431 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LAMERS/BLAKE
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