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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-09-17 10:34:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 261 WTNT45 KNHC 170834 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 A few convective cells have redeveloped to the northeast of the estimated center, but this new convection is quickly being displaced eastward by very strong vertical shear. Global model guidance indicates that strong westerly or northwesterly shear should persist over Joyce for the next couple of days. Thus, even though the system is over marginally warm SSTs, the combination of strong shear and very dry air in the mid-levels should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours. It would not be surprising, however, to see Joyce degenerate even sooner than that. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and close to the HWRF model guidance. The circulation is a bit elongated, making the center somewhat difficult to locate. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 090/15 kt. There has not been much change to the track forecast reasoning. Joyce is currently on the north side of a mid-level high pressure area. Over the next couple of days, the cyclone should turn southeastward, southward, and then southwestward around the eastern periphery of the high. The NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus, and not too different from the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 34.2N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 33.7N 27.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 32.6N 26.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 31.5N 26.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 30.5N 27.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0600Z 29.0N 30.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2018-09-17 10:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 160 FONT15 KNHC 170834 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0900 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-17 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 17 the center of Joyce was located near 34.2, -29.0 with movement E at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Joyce Public Advisory Number 19
2018-09-17 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 017 WTNT35 KNHC 170833 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 ...JOYCE STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 29.0W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 29.0 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h). The system should slow its forward speed while turning toward the southeast on today, south on Tuesday, and southwest on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joyce is expected to become a remnant low within the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 19
2018-09-17 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 018 WTNT25 KNHC 170833 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0900 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 29.0W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 29.0W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 29.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.7N 27.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.6N 26.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 31.5N 26.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.5N 27.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 29.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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