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Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-17 22:35:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE CONTINUES AS A DEPRESSION TURNING SOUTHEAST... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 17 the center of Joyce was located near 33.7, -27.4 with movement SE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Joyce Public Advisory Number 21
2018-09-17 22:35:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 528 WTNT35 KNHC 172035 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 ...JOYCE CONTINUES AS A DEPRESSION TURNING SOUTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 27.4W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 130 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 27.4 West. The depression is moving toward the southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue while turning toward the south on Tuesday and southwest on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joyce is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Burke/Blake
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 21
2018-09-17 22:35:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 079 WTNT25 KNHC 172035 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 27.4W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 27.4W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 27.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.9N 26.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 31.8N 26.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.8N 27.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.1N 28.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.7N 31.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 27.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BURKE/BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Joyce Graphics
2018-09-17 16:36:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 17 Sep 2018 14:36:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 17 Sep 2018 14:36:52 GMT
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-09-17 16:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 633 WTNT45 KNHC 171435 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 Joyce is gradually losing organization, with drier air entraining into the circulation. Visible satellite imagery this morning shows a few cloud swirls pivoting around a mean center with only a small amount of deep convection displaced about 90 miles northeast of the mean center. ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that winds of 25 to 30 kt remain on the southwestern side of the cyclone. Based on these data, Joyce remains a 30-kt tropical depression for this advisory. Dry air and strong vertical wind shear are expected to continue to weaken Joyce over the next few days, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the model consensus. The only notable change is that Joyce is now expected to become a remnant low a little faster than the previous advisory. The initial motion is 105/07 kt. Joyce has slowed down this morning as anticipated as it is now reaching the northeastern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. Over the next couple of days, the cyclone is expected to turn southeastward, southward, and then southwestward around the eastern periphery of the high. The lastest track guidance is tightly clustered, with the NHC track forecast lying in the middle of the guidance envelope, and close to the previous official forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 34.0N 28.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 33.5N 27.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 32.3N 26.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 31.2N 27.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z 30.3N 28.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z 28.9N 31.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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