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Tropical Storm JERRY Graphics
2013-09-30 17:10:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2013 14:34:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2013 15:06:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-09-30 16:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 30 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 301432 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 AM AST MON SEP 30 2013 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH 35 KT...AND THE CYCLONE IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE STORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THIS TIME...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HOSTILE ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND THEREFORE THE WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR THAT TIME IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. CENTER FIXES FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 090/6. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT AN AMPLIFYING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF JERRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN THE STORM DECELERATING AND MOVING IN A CLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT JERRY MAY NOT GET PICKED UP BY THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES...AND THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 27.0N 45.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 26.6N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 26.3N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 26.2N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 26.3N 47.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 27.3N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 28.5N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 30.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm JERRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2013-09-30 16:31:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 301431 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 3 5 8 9 12 14 TROP DEPRESSION 31 20 22 25 25 32 34 TROPICAL STORM 67 72 66 59 58 51 47 HURRICANE 1 5 6 9 9 5 4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 5 5 8 8 5 4 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 35KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm JERRY (AT1/AL112013)
2013-09-30 16:31:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of JERRY was located near 27.0, -45.7 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Coalition asks Gov. Jerry Brown to halt fracking in California
2013-08-28 20:16:00| Climate Ark Climate Change & Global Warming Newsfeed
LA Times: A coalition of more than 100 environmental and political activist groups is denouncing oil fracking legislation as too weak and calling on Gov. Jerry Brown to order an immediate halt to the controversial drilling practice. "The truth is that there is no proven way to protect California from fracking besides prohibiting this inherently dangerous practice," said the letter delivered to the governor's office Wednesday. Fracking, formally known as hydraulic fracturing, is a drilling technique that...
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