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Tropical Storm JERRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2013-10-01 04:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 010243 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 3 5 8 13 TROP DEPRESSION 2 8 12 15 17 23 32 TROPICAL STORM 92 78 71 64 61 59 50 HURRICANE 7 13 15 18 17 10 6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 11 13 16 15 9 5 HUR CAT 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 50KT 50KT 50KT 45KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm JERRY (AT1/AL112013)

2013-10-01 04:43:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JERRY STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of JERRY was located near 27.4, -43.8 with movement E at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm JERRY Public Advisory Number 9

2013-10-01 04:43:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 010243 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013 ...JERRY STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 43.8W ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST. JERRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Advisory Number 9

2013-10-01 04:42:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 010242 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 43.8W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 43.8W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 44.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.2N 44.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.1N 44.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.3N 45.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 27.9N 46.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 29.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 30.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 33.0N 41.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 43.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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