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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 2A
2021-08-16 13:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 161132 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 800 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 62.8W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 62.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this morning. A slow clockwise turn toward the southwest and west is anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a continued westward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will pass to the southeast and south of Bermuda during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 27
2021-08-16 10:58:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160858 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...FRED MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 86.0W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 86.0 West. Fred is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through today. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today, and make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early evening. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Today Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected.. Through Tuesday The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Wednesday Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible early this morning over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late morning and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 2
2021-08-16 10:49:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 160849 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PASSING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 62.9W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 62.9 West. The depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue this morning. A slow clockwise turn toward the southwest and west is anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a continued westward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will pass to the southeast and south of Bermuda during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-16 10:48:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 160848 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 62.9W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 195 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 62.9W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 62.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.6N 63.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.0N 63.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.7N 64.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.7N 65.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 30.8N 66.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 31.1N 68.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 32.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 34.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 62.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-08-16 10:47:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 160847 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 70.2W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 70.2W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 69.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N 72.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.6N 74.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.3N 77.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.1N 80.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.8N 83.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.6N 86.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 0SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 22.6N 91.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 23.4N 96.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 70.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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