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Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 11A
2021-08-16 07:48:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160548 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 ...GRACE CONTINUES TO CAUSE HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 69.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Dominican Republic * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 69.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a general westward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola later today, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or just south of west-central Cuba on Wednesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next two to three days. The latest minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic today, and in Haiti today into tonight. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Virgin Islands...1 to 3 inches of additional rain is possible through today. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm total amounts of 8 inches are expected through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system may impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, Hispaniola, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-16 05:00:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 160300 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AND NEARBY WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 62.7W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 175 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 62.7 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow clockwise turn toward the west is anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a continued westward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move east and south of Bermuda during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-16 05:00:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 160259 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY: THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 62.7W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 175 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 62.7W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 62.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.4N 62.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.5N 63.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.1N 64.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.0N 64.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.0N 66.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.2N 67.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 32.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 33.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 62.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Advisory Number 26
2021-08-16 04:44:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 052 WTNT21 KNHC 160243 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO NAVARRE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO YANKEETOWN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NAVARRE TO THE WAKULLA/ JEFFERSON COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 85.9W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 85.9W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 85.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.6N 86.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.2N 86.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.3N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.4N 84.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 85.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 26
2021-08-16 04:44:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 053 WTNT31 KNHC 160243 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 85.9W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from the Alabama/Florida border to Navarre has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 85.9 West. Fred is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or Monday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday... Keys and southern Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected.. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning by late Monday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible late tonight through early Monday over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the day Monday from the Florida Panhandle northward into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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