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Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 11
2021-08-16 04:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160240 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...GRACE CAUSING HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT IN PUERTO RICO... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 68.6W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Dominican Republic * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 68.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a general westward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or just south of west-central Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next two to three days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and in Haiti on Monday and Monday night. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Virgin Islands...1 to 3 inches of additional rain is possible through Monday. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm total amounts of 8 inches are expected through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system may impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, Hispaniola, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-08-16 04:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 989 WTNT22 KNHC 160240 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 68.6W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 68.6W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 68.1W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.7N 70.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.7N 72.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 75.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.4N 78.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.2N 81.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.2N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 23.5N 89.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 93.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 68.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Linda Forecast Advisory Number 24
2021-08-16 04:33:34| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021
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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 25A
2021-08-16 01:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 152348 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 700 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING FRED AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 85.7W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to Navarre A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Alabama to the Florida Big Bend should monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 85.7 West. Fred is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected until landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday... Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning on Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight into early Monday along the west coast of Florida and over the Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 10A
2021-08-16 01:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 152348 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 800 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 68.1W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Dominican Republic * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located by an Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 68.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or over west-central Cuba on Wednesday. The aircraft reported that maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and in Haiti on Monday and Monday night. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today into Tuesday: Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches across southern terrain areas. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday. By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and will reach portions of Hispaniola tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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