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Remnants of Fred Public Advisory Number 20

2021-08-14 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 141449 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 ...FRED DEGENERATES TO A TROPICAL WAVE... ...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 83.2W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches could be required for portions of this area later in the weekend. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by Sunday night. On the forecast track, Fred or its remnants are expected to pass west of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over the northern Gulf coast Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression on Sunday, with gradual strengthening to a tropical storm expected after the system re-develops. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida. Across the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible in squalls today across the Florida keys and the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula. SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon through tonight across portions of west-central and south Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Remnants of Fred Forecast Advisory Number 20

2021-08-14 16:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 141448 TCMAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 83.2W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 83.2W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.6W...DISTURBANCE FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.1N 84.2W...DISTURBANCE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.7N 85.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.4N 86.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.7N 87.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.0N 87.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 35.0N 86.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 83.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Linda Public Advisory Number 18

2021-08-14 16:34:07| Tropical Depression LIDIA

...LINDA AT CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... Location: 18.8°N 116.1°W Max sustained: 130 mph Moving: WNW at 13 mph Min pressure: 950 mb Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021

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Hurricane Linda Forecast Advisory Number 18

2021-08-14 16:34:07| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021

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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 19A

2021-08-14 13:47:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 141146 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 ...FRED REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED NEAR WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 82.8W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be required for portions of the Florida panhandle and Alabama later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 82.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn to the northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by Sunday night. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass west of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over the northern Gulf coast Monday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm again tonight or on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain with local amounts of 8 inches is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida. Across the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area across the Florida Keys later today. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting this afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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