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Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 3A
2021-08-14 07:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 291 WTNT32 KNHC 140540 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 54.7W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 54.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A motion towards the west or west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move over the Leeward Islands tonight, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area over the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today into Monday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 18
2021-08-14 04:49:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140249 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRED CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 80.6W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF VARADERO CUBA ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the Middle and Upper Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef has been discontinued, including Florida Bay. The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be required for portions of the Florida panhandle on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 80.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general motion should continue through early Monday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to continue moving near the north coast of central Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys on Saturday, and move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through early Saturday. After that, slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm again by late Saturday or Saturday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Tonight through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting Saturday afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 3
2021-08-14 04:49:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 140249 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 ...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 53.8W ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 53.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A motion towards the west or west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move over the Leeward Islands Saturday night, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tomorrow. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area over the Leeward Islands by Saturday night or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Saturday into Monday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-08-14 04:49:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 941 WTNT21 KNHC 140249 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED... INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 80.6W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 80.6W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 80.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.4N 81.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.8N 83.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.3N 85.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.8N 86.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.2N 86.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.6N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 37.5N 84.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 80.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-14 04:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 315 WTNT22 KNHC 140248 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 53.8W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 53.8W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 52.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 56.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.7N 60.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.3N 66.2W...INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.9N 68.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.6N 70.4W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.7N 74.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 24.3N 78.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 53.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
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