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Remnants of Fred Public Advisory Number 21
2021-08-14 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 142037 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 ...REMNANTS OF FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 84.6W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches and warnings could be required for portions of this area tonight or Sunday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 84.6 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward the northwest is expected tonight through Sunday night, with a turn toward the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, cross the central and northern Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday, and move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression late tonight or on Sunday, with gradual strengthening to a tropical storm expected after the system re-develops. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through today... Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Through Monday... Keys and southern Florida...3 to 5 inches. From Sunday night into Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle...3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Southern Alabama...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and southern Alabama could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts. From Tuesday onward... Heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through Sunday over parts of the western Florida peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Linda Public Advisory Number 19
2021-08-14 22:31:46| Tropical Depression LIDIA
...POWERFUL LINDA STILL WITH 130 MPH WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... Location: 19.1°N 117.0°W Max sustained: 130 mph Moving: WNW at 13 mph Min pressure: 950 mb Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021
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Hurricane Linda Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-08-14 22:31:46| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 5A
2021-08-14 19:56:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 141756 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING GRACE... ...GRACE NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED BUT PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 58.7W ABOUT 185 MI...345 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo to Cabo Engano * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to Cabo Engano A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for this area later today and tonight. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was estimated by extrapolation near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 58.7 West. Preliminary reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center may be located farther to the southwest, and a relocation could be required in the 500 PM AST advisory. Grace is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is expected to move over the Leeward Islands tonight, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, over the Dominican Republic on Monday, and then between the southeastern Bahamas and Cuba on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Grace is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater Antilles Sunday night through Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night into Monday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Saturday into Tuesday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential mudslides. By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-08-14 16:53:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 141452 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO...AND FOR THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO TO CABO ENGANO * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO CABO ENGANO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 57.9W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 57.9W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 57.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.8N 60.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 63.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 66.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.6N 68.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.4N 70.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N 72.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.8N 77.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 25.4N 81.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 57.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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