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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 20
2021-09-27 16:53:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 769 WTNT33 KNHC 271453 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SAM... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 52.1W ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 52.0 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with an increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday. A turn to the north is expected on Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will pass well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next days, although Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through at least Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sam will reach the Lesser Antilles today and impact these islands for the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas mid-to-late week, and then spread to the United States east coast late this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 20
2021-09-27 16:52:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 271452 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 52.1W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 52.1W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 51.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.4N 52.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.3N 53.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.1N 55.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.1N 56.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.2N 58.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.7N 59.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 25.9N 62.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 32.0N 61.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 52.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 19
2021-09-27 10:45:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 270845 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 ...SAM EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO INVESTIGATE SAM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 51.4W ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 51.4 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next several days, with an increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Thereafter, some slow weakening is forecast through midweek, although Sam should remain a major hurricane. Sam is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sam will reach the Lesser Antilles today and impact these islands for the next several days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-09-27 10:44:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270844 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC MON SEP 27 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 51.4W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 51.4W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 51.1W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.9N 52.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.8N 53.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.7N 54.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.6N 55.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.6N 57.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.0N 58.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.9N 61.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 30.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 51.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 18
2021-09-27 04:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 270248 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS SAM HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 50.8W ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 50.8 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days, along with a gradual increase in forward speed beginning around midweek. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next day or so. Thereafter, slow weakening is forecast. However, Sam is still expected to remain a major hurricane through midweek. Sam remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent reports from the aircraft is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sam are forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles early this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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