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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-09-29 16:35:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 291435 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 24.6W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 24.6W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 24.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 8.8N 25.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 9.5N 27.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.3N 29.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.2N 31.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.4N 33.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.0N 35.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 38.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 24.3N 40.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.3N 24.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 27
2021-09-29 10:37:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 29 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 290837 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 29 2021 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND SAM FLUCTUATING IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 56.2W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 56.2 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the north is forecast by Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will pass well to the east and northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through tonight. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through late this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the Lesser Antilles during the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas in a day or two, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 27
2021-09-29 10:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 290836 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 56.2W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 105SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 56.2W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 55.9W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.7N 57.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.0N 58.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.8N 60.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.2N 61.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.9N 62.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.8N 61.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 35.8N 57.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 40.8N 52.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 56.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 26
2021-09-29 04:34:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 290233 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 28 2021 ...SAM SLOWLY STRENGTHENING WITH 140-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 55.6W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 55.6 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the north is forecast by Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will pass well to the east and northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through late this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the Lesser Antilles during the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas in a couple of days, and then spread to the United States east coast late this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 26
2021-09-29 04:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 290 WTNT23 KNHC 290233 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 55.6W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 105SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 55.6W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.1N 56.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.2N 58.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.8N 59.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.9N 61.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.4N 61.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.1N 61.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 35.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 40.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 55.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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