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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 30
2021-09-30 04:52:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 300252 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SAM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE ISLAND ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 58.4W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 135SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 58.4W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 58.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.9N 59.6W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.1N 60.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.8N 61.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.6N 61.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.2N 60.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.3N 59.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 37.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 42.0N 48.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 58.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 3
2021-09-30 04:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 217 WTNT35 KNHC 300246 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 200 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 ...VICTOR MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.4N 26.7W ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 8.4 North, longitude 26.7 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest late Friday or Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Victor is expected to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-30 04:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 300246 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 26.7W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 105SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 26.7W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 26.2W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 8.9N 28.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 9.7N 30.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 10.6N 32.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.8N 33.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.4N 35.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.5N 36.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 20.5N 39.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 26.0N 41.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.4N 26.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 29
2021-09-29 22:50:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 29 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 292050 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 29 2021 ...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE SAM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 57.6W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 57.6 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the north is forecast by Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will continue to pass well to the east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through late this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a minimum central pressure of 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the Lesser Antilles during the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas in a day or so, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 29
2021-09-29 22:49:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 292049 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 57.6W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 57.6W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 57.3W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.2N 58.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.1N 60.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.6N 61.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.3N 61.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.0N 61.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.6N 59.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 37.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 42.0N 48.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 57.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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