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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-09-24 10:31:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 240830 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 42.2W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 42.2W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 41.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 11.7N 44.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 12.1N 45.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.5N 47.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.9N 48.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.4N 50.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.1N 51.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 15.9N 53.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 17.8N 56.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 42.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Sam Public Advisory Number 6
2021-09-24 04:40:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 318 WTNT33 KNHC 240239 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sam Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 ...SMALL SAM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 40.9W ABOUT 1560 MI...2505 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sam was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 40.9 West. Sam is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A motion toward the west-northwest at an even slower forward speed is expected late Saturday into Sunday. Sam is rapidly intensifying, and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to continue through early Saturday. Sam is likely to become a hurricane very soon and then could be a major hurricane by Friday night or early Saturday. Sam is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Sam Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-24 04:39:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 660 WTNT23 KNHC 240239 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 40.9W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 40.9W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 40.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.4N 42.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 11.8N 45.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 12.1N 46.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.5N 47.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.0N 49.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.5N 50.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 15.3N 53.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 17.3N 56.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 40.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Sam Public Advisory Number 5
2021-09-23 22:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 232051 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sam Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 ...SAM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...RAPID INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 39.7W ABOUT 1635 MI...2635 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sam was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 39.7 West. Sam is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a general west to west-northwest motion is expected to continue over the next several days, with a gradual slowdown in forward motion. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast during the next several days. Sam is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow morning and could become a major hurricane by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Sam Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-23 22:50:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 232050 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 39.7W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 39.7W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 39.1W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.5N 41.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 11.9N 44.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 12.3N 46.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.6N 47.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.1N 48.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.7N 50.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 15.2N 52.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 17.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 39.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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