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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 36
2021-10-01 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 011450 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 61.8W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 936 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 130SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 61.8W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 61.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.7N 61.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.4N 60.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 35.6N 58.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.2N 56.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 38.7N 52.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 41.9N 48.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 200SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 49.0N 42.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 51.0N 34.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 61.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/NEPAUL
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-10-01 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 011450 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 33.5W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 60SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 33.5W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 33.0W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.0N 34.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.1N 36.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.7N 38.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.6N 40.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.7N 42.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.6N 43.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.6N 46.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 27.1N 46.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 33.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 35A
2021-10-01 14:22:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 011145 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Intermediate Advisory Number 35A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 800 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...SAM REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 61.8W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 61.8 West. Sam is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northeast, at a similar forward speed, is expected later today and tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible today, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at least Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas later today, and then spread to the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 35
2021-10-01 10:45:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 656 WTNT33 KNHC 010845 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...SAM'S CORE TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND BY TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 61.7W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 61.7 West. Sam is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northeast, at a similar forward speed, is expected later today and tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible today, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at least Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 934 mb (27.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas later today, and then spread to the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 35
2021-10-01 10:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 010845 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 61.7W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 61.7W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 61.6W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.8N 62.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.7N 61.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 34.2N 59.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 36.0N 57.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.7N 55.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 40.1N 51.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 200SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 47.7N 44.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 50.1N 38.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 61.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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