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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 11
2020-09-20 10:55:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200855 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 ...BETA IS NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 92.7W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch from Port Aransas to High Island, Texas has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch between Baffin Bay and Port Aransas, Texas has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch south of Port Mansfield, Texas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Port Aransas Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 92.7 West. Beta is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slightly faster motion toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur during the next couple of days, followed by a slow down and a turn to the north and northeast Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move toward the coast of Texas and will likely move inland Monday or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Port Aransas, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake... 2-4 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will spread westward to the warning areas in Texas late today through early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on Monday. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana, with 4 to 8 inches spreading northward into the lower Mississippi River Valley by mid-week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur Monday near the middle-upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-09-20 10:54:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200854 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WATCH BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD...TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...LOUISIANA...INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY... GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE...AND LAKE CALCASIEU A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 92.7W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......170NE 30SE 40SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 92.7W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.2N 93.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 30SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.6N 94.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.2N 95.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.8N 96.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.2N 96.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.7N 95.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 31.4N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 33.8N 90.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 92.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 32
2020-09-20 10:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200846 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...TEDDY FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY... ...SWELLS FROM TEDDY COULD GENERATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 62.0W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 62.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion will likely continue this morning. A turn toward the north is expected tonight and then Teddy is forecast to continue generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday night, and the center will pass east of the island Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next day or two, but Teddy is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Monday. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). NOAA buoy 41049, located about 80 miles south-southwest of the center of Teddy recently reported sustained winds of 59 mph (95 km/h) and several gusts near 65 mph (105 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda as early as tonight and could linger into Monday night. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 32
2020-09-20 10:44:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 896 WTNT25 KNHC 200844 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 62.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..510NE 330SE 420SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 62.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 61.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.9N 62.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.4N 62.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 180SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.3N 62.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 230SE 250SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 37.5N 62.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW. 34 KT...365NE 300SE 270SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.9N 63.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...350NE 300SE 250SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 43.8N 62.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 250SW 250NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 51.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 58.5N 41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 62.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Public Advisory Number 8
2020-09-20 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200833 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...WILFRED WILTING IN THE FACE OF HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 42.0W ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1285 MI...2070 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 42.0 West. Wilfred is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is anticipated. Wilfred is not expected to last more than another couple of days and could dissipate as soon as later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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