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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 33
2020-09-20 16:50:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 201449 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANANDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 62.8W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..510NE 270SE 420SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 62.8W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 62.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.2N 63.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 170SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.0N 62.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...280NE 200SE 200SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...350NE 270SE 290SW 310NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.8N 63.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 50 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. 34 KT...350NE 330SE 290SW 280NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.7N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...310NE 280SE 260SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...190NE 250SE 200SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 53.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 60.5N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 62.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Wilfred Public Advisory Number 9
2020-09-20 16:45:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 201445 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Wilfred Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...WILFRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 44.2W ABOUT 1340 MI...2160 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Wilfred was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 44.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). Wilfred should slow its forward speed while heading toward the west or west-northwestward for the next few days until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Wilfred should weaken to a remnant low within a couple days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Depression Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-20 16:44:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 201444 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 44.2W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 44.2W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 43.5W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.2N 46.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 48.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.8N 50.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 51.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.2N 52.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 44.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 11A
2020-09-20 13:45:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 201145 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 700 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 ...BETA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 92.8W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS ABOUT 290 MI...460 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Port Aransas Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 92.8 West. Beta is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slightly faster motion toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur during the next couple of days, followed by a slow down and a turn to the north and northeast Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move toward the coast of Texas and will likely move inland Monday or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches) based on reports from nearby oil platforms. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Port Aransas, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake... 2-4 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will spread westward to the warning areas in Texas late today through early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on Monday. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana, with 4 to 8 inches spreading northward into the lower Mississippi River Valley by mid-week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur Monday near the middle-to-upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 32A
2020-09-20 13:45:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 201145 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 800 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...TEDDY JOGS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST... ...SWELLS FROM TEDDY COULD GENERATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 62.7W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 62.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a northwestward motion will likely resume by this afternoon. A turn toward the north is expected tonight and then Teddy is forecast to continue generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda tonight, and the center should pass east of the island Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Teddy is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Monday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda as early as tonight and could linger into Monday night. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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