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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 31
2020-09-20 04:53:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200253 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... ...CAUSING RIP CURRENTS THAT WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 61.2W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 61.2 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into Sunday. A turn toward the north is expected by Sunday night followed by a faster northward motion early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday night, and the center will pass just east of the island Monday morning. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A weakening trend is expected to begin Sunday night. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). Teddy's wind field is likely to become even larger over the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda beginning Sunday night and could linger into Monday night. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 31
2020-09-20 04:52:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 417 WTNT25 KNHC 200252 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 61.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT.......220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 300SE 390SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 61.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 60.8W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.6N 63.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.6N 62.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...260NE 220SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 35.7N 61.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...320NE 230SE 240SW 290NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.7N 62.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...170NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...350NE 330SE 270SW 320NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 42.5N 62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...350NE 310SE 250SW 270NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 49.5N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 57.0N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 61.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Public Advisory Number 7
2020-09-20 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200233 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...WILFRED CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 40.5W ABOUT 1105 MI...1775 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1390 MI...2235 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 40.5 West. Wilfred is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a slower westward motion late Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday. Gradual Weakening is expected Sunday night and Monday, and Wilfred is expected to dissipate by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-20 04:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 200232 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 40.5W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 40.5W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 39.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.3N 42.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 45.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.2N 47.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.4N 49.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 40.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 9A
2020-09-20 01:50:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192350 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 700 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 ...BETA MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE STORM... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 92.2W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to High Island, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Baffin Bay, Texas to Port Aransas, Texas including Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay * High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana including Sabine Lake and Lake Calcasieu A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Texas coast tonight. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 92.2 West. Data from this morning's Hurricane Hunter flight and the current flight indicate that Beta's center has drifted toward the northeast during the day. A westward drift is expected tonight, followed by a slow motion toward the west-northwest that should continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Beta could be near hurricane strength as it approaches the Texas coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center, mainly in the northern semicircle. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft Cameron, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast Sunday night or Monday. RAINFALL: Beta has the potential to produce a long duration rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. Today through Tuesday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches beginning Saturday across southern Louisiana and spreading into coastal Texas on Sunday. Flash and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding. Isolated moderate flooding along the middle Texas coast is possible. Additional heavy rainfall amounts across the western Gulf Coast are possible through late week as Beta is expected to move slowly near the Texas coast. SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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