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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-09-11 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 110833 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 114.0W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 114.0W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.2N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.7N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.8N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.5N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.6N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.1N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 114.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 43
2021-09-11 10:30:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 110830 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 ...LARRY RACING AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...50.7N 51.7W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM NNE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM WSW OF REYKJAVIK ICELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All warnings for Newfoundland have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 50.7 North, longitude 51.7 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northeast near 48 mph (78 km/h), and this motion is forecast to continue today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is forecast to transition into a post-tropical cyclone later today, and merge with a larger non-tropical low by tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages STORM SURGE: Water levels will gradually subside in southeastern Newfoundland today. SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 43
2021-09-11 10:30:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 403 WTNT22 KNHC 110830 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WARNINGS FOR NEWFOUNDLAND HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.7N 51.7W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 42 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT.......180NE 240SE 150SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 350SE 660SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.7N 51.7W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 48.8N 53.3W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 56.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 360SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 50.7N 51.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 42A
2021-09-11 07:41:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 110541 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 42A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 ...LARRY LASHING NEWFOUNDLAND WITH STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...48.7N 53.2W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF ST JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove has been discontinued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 48.7 North, longitude 53.2 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northeast near 47 mph (76 km/h). A very rapid motion toward the north-northeast or northeast is expected through today and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will be moving quickly away from Newfoundland during the next several hours. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and Larry is expected to become a strong extratropical low later this morning before it merges with another low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). St. John's International Airport, Newfoundland, recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (96 km/h) and a wind gust of 90 mph (144 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches) based on surface observations from Newfoundland. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warned areas during the next few hours. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 42
2021-09-11 04:48:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 452 WTNT32 KNHC 110248 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 ...CENTER OF LARRY TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...46.8N 54.9W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 46.8 North, longitude 54.9 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northeast near 47 mph (76 km/h). A very rapid motion toward the north-northeast or northeast is expected through Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will be moving across southeastern Newfoundland during the next few hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall in Newfoundland. After landfall, Larry is expected to become a strong extratropical low by Saturday morning before it merges with another low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). A station at Cape St. Mary's, Newfoundland, relayed by amateur radio, recently reported sustained winds of 84 mph (135 km/h) and a wind gust of 97 mph (156 km/h) at an unknown elevation. The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are now spreading across the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland, and tropical storm conditions are also spreading across other portions of the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland during the next few hours. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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