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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 37
2021-09-09 22:58:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 092058 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 ...LARRY BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 62.2W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Hurricane Warning from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour, Newfoundland. The Canadian Hurricane Centre has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove, and from north of Jones Harbour to Bonavista, Newfoundland. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda * Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Bonavista A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 62.2 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, with a faster northeastward motion forecast by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will continue to move away from Bermuda tonight, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, then weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low east of Greenland by Monday. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). Pearl Island, Bermuda, reported sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 45 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda for the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland by late Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda today. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through today. Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 37
2021-09-09 22:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 092057 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR...NEWFOUNDLAND. THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE...AND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOUR TO BONAVISTA...NEWFOUNDLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO BONAVISTA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 62.2W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 320SE 280SW 320NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 62.2W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.8N 61.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 42.2N 59.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 180SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.4N 52.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 180SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 55.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 230SE 210SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 59.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 220SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 61.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...320NE 270SE 250SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 62.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Olaf Public Advisory Number 9
2021-09-09 22:45:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 092045 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Olaf Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...EYEWALL OF OLAF NEARING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 108.9W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Warning from north of Sante Fe to Cabo San Lazaro to a Hurricane Warning. The government of Mexico has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito and from San Evaristo to Loreto. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to Loreto A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 108.9 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slight turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, and Olaf is forecast to continue moving toward the northwest on Friday. A turn toward the west is expected over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will approach the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next several hours, and then move very near or over southern Baja California Sur tonight and on Friday. The hurricane will begin to move westward away from land late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is possible before the hurricane nears the coast tonight. Weakening is expected on Friday after Olaf begins to interact with land. Further weakening is likely over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or this evening and will spread northward through Friday. Tropical Storm conditions are occuring near the southern coast of Baja California Sur and will spread northward during the next several hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area Friday night. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Hurricane Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-09-09 22:44:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 092044 TCMEP5 HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF SANTE FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO TO A HURRICANE WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO AND FROM SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO CABO SAN LAZARO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO LORETO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLAF. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 108.9W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 108.9W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 108.6W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.1N 110.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.2N 111.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.6N 112.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 114.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.9N 115.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 21.5N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 108.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Mindy Public Advisory Number 5
2021-09-09 22:37:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 092037 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mindy Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...MINDY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 78.3W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mindy was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 78.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a decrease in forward speed on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Mindy is forecast to become a remnant low on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen
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