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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 1A
2021-09-12 19:45:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 121745 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 ...NICHOLAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 95.5W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). Satellite and reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the center may be re-forming farther north. As a result, some erratic motion is possible this afternoon, but a general north-northwestward motion near 15 mph (24 km/h) should resume later today. This motion should then continue through tonight. A slower northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas late Monday, and approach the south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast while Nicholas approaches the northwestern Gulf coast during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, across portions of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana today through the middle of the week. This rainfall may produce areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. Over the eastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected today into Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island, TX...2-4 ft Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4 The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by Monday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-09-12 16:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 690 WTNT24 KNHC 121457 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BARRA EL MEZQUITAL NORTHWARD TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER. A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 94.8W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 94.8W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 94.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.9N 95.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.1N 96.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.4N 96.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.2N 96.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.4N 95.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.3N 95.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 31.0N 94.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 94.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Public Advisory Number 44
2021-09-11 16:37:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 111437 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 ...LARRY IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE LABRADOR SEA... ...STILL PRODUCING LARGE SWELLS ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...54.0N 48.2W ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM NNE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM WSW OF REYKJAVIK ICELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry was located near latitude 54.0 North, longitude 48.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 48 mph (78 km/h) and this heading with a decrease in forward speed is expected until Larry merges with an extratropical low tonight or early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is possible before Larry merges with another extratropical low. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to subside in southeastern Newfoundland today. SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Larry. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Forecast Advisory Number 44
2021-09-11 16:37:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 111436 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 54.0N 48.2W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 42 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT.......210NE 270SE 210SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 600SE 840SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 54.0N 48.2W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 52.5N 49.5W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 57.8N 44.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 360SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 54.0N 48.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON LARRY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Public Advisory Number 15
2021-09-11 10:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 722 WTPZ35 KNHC 110833 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 ...OLAF BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 114.0W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 114.0 West. Olaf is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is expected to begin later today and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and the remnant low could open up into a trough at any time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Residual swells from Olaf along the west coast of Baja California Sur will continue to subside today but could still cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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