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Tropical Depression Mindy Public Advisory Number 4
2021-09-09 16:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 091451 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mindy Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...CENTER OF MINDY MOVES OFFSHORE THE GEORGIA COAST... ...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 80.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mindy was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 80.7 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a decrease in forward speed on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Mindy is expected to become a remnant low by Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of coastal South Carolina through early this afternoon. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts could occur near the coast of southeastern Georgia for another few hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen
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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-09 16:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 091451 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 80.7W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 80.7W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 81.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 32.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.6N 73.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.3N 70.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 80.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/HAGEN
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Hurricane Olaf Public Advisory Number 8
2021-09-09 16:50:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 091450 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Olaf Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...OLAF BECOMES A HURRICANE WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY TODAY... ...PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 108.3W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 108.3 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near or over the southern part of the peninsula tonight and on Friday, and then move westward away from land Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely before Olaf nears the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula tonight. Weakening is likely on Friday and through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon or this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread northward within the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are beginning to reach portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Hurricane Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-09-09 16:50:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 091450 TCMEP5 HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLAF. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.3W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.3W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.2N 109.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.3N 110.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 112.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.1N 113.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.8N 114.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 21.0N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 108.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 35A
2021-09-09 13:53:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 091153 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 35A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 61.5W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 61.5 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is forecast today, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda today, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday, after passing by Newfoundland, then weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low east of Greenland Monday. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 220 miles (350 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda later today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in southeastern Newfoundland by late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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