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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-06-03 13:57:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 031157 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 700 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 ...CRISTOBAL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 92.1W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 92.1 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the east this afternoon. A motion toward the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast later today and move inland over eastern Mexico tonight and Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back over water Thursday night and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches. Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-06-03 10:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 030844 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0900 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 92.0W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 92.0W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 92.1W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.3N 91.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.3N 91.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.5N 90.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.2N 90.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 26.3N 90.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 29.8N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 92.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 6A
2020-06-03 07:47:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 030547 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 100 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 ...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT CREEPS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 92.1W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 92.1 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning, followed by turn toward the east this afternoon. A motion toward the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast later today. and move inland over eastern Mexico tonight and Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday. Nearby surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional increase in strength is possible until the center crosses the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back over water Thursday night and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco and Campeche. Cristobal is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Veracruz, Quintana Roo, Yucatan and Oaxaca. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches, is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, is expected across portions of Honduras and Belize. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 6
2020-06-03 04:38:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 030238 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 ...CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT INCHES TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 92.3W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.3 West. Cristobal is moving toward the south near 1 mph (2 km/h), and a turn toward the southeast and east is expected tonight and Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast later tonight or on Wednesday and move inland over eastern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional increase in strength is possible until the center crosses the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back over water Thursday night and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. A wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported at an automated observing site in Ciudad del Carmen. The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco and Campeche. Cristobal is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Veracruz, Quintana Roo, Yucatan and Oaxaca. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, is expected across portions of Honduras and Belize. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-06-03 04:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 030238 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.3W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.3W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 92.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.7N 92.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.3N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.8N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.6N 91.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.2N 91.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 25.0N 91.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 29.0N 91.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 92.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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